Australian cyclist number survey
comparisons 1985/86 - 2011
Australia Australian Capital Territory New South Wales Northern Territory
Queensland South Australia Tasmania Victoria Western Australia
Note: this page relates to an analysis of Australian cyclist numbers and population 1985/86 - 2011 as published by World Transport Policy and Practice May 2012.
If the same 1985/86 ratio of bicycle trips per day per person aged 9 years and older is applied to the 2010 population of Australia aged 10+, there are between 555,989 and 615,840 less bike trips per day than before mandatory all-age helmet laws were introduced in 1990/92.
This is the equivalent of all cyclists in NSW and Tasmania no longer riding on any given day.
The best case estimate of 555,989 fewer Australian bicycle trips per day compared to 1985/86 per capita daily participation is based on a claimed estimate of 2,014,620 in 2011, which critics acknowledge as an accurate assessment of available survey data.
Compared as a population ratio per million people, Australian daily cycling participation fell from 128,673 in 1985/86 to 103,231 in 2010/11.
Fresh analysis
This study considers cycling participation nationally and in different states through the application of 1985/86 daily cycling ratios in Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (CR69) to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) equivalent age bracket populations in 2010, compared against the Australian Cycling Participation Survey 2011 (CPS).
Rather than age/sex indirect standardisation, this analysis compares the 1985/86 state-by-state estimated per person cycling ratios (age 9+) and applies them directly to corresponding populations in 2010.
Also provided are state and Australian cycling participation numbers and population proportions calculated by the Exercise, Recreation and Sport Survey (ERASS). These estimate cycling participation among 15+ year olds at any time over the 12 months prior to survey.
Each participation survey suggests different levels of cycling within the Australian population. As studied in Assessing Cycling Participation in Australia (PDF 524kb), the CPS reports the highest proportion, the ABS the lowest proportion and ERASS between the two. However, ERASS uses a respected and consistent methodology since 2001 and provides results that accurately monitor the likely changes in adult cycling participation over a decade.
This analysis draws further data from the Review of the Australian Day-to-Day Travel Survey Data Base 1985/86, published in 1988, which tested the CR69 survey and found a data collatation error rate below 1%.
Methods
This analysis calculates the state and national population ratios from 1985/86 for each gender.
These ratios are applied to the different state and national 10+ genders based on ABS population estimates in 2010 to determine what would be the expected numbers cycling each day.
This expectation is then compared against the daily cycling estimates of the CPS 2011 survey and the differences are summed.
ERASS estimates of occasional, non-daily cycling from 2001 to 2010 are presented as a number and ratio comparison to assist in gauging the accuracy of the CPS estimates - bearing in mind that the 1985/86 CR69 estimates 9+ daily cycling, the 2011 CPS survey estimates 10+ daily cycling, the ABS 2010 populations are 10+, and the ERASS survey is 15+.
The ERASS annual population/cycling ratios are effectively a percentage of any cycling whatsoever within 12 months in each population and can be used as an overestimated comparison against the daily ratios in 1985/86.
All survey studies used different datasets and methodologies and can only give rough estimates of cycling participation either now or in the past, but this analysis provides multiple sources to assist in determining whether participation has increased or decreased relative to population growth.
Results ...
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Bicycle trips per day
Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (Table 4.1a, p120) Australia - 0.19 (19.287%) trips per male x 6,198,556 people aged 9+ = 1,195,515 daily bike trips
Total 1,645,934 daily bike trips
Australia - 0.19 (19.287%) trips per male x 9,673,440 people aged 10+ = 1,865,716 daily bike trips
Total 2,570,609 expected daily bike trips based on 1985/86 male/female ratios
The survey estimated 1,989,562 bicycle trips aged 10+ per day in Australia. If the same ratio of bike trips per person per day from 1985/86 is applied to the 2010 population of Australia, there are 581,047 less trips per capita than pre-law with a ratio of 0.29. On a state-by-state basis as calculated lower on this page, if the same ratio from 1985/86 was applied to 10+ population in 2010, there are 640,898 less people cycling per capita than before the law.
This is a ratio of 0.28. The difference between the expected 2,570,609 cyclists in 2010 and the estimated 2,014,620 is 27.6%. The estimated increase in daily cycling from 1,645,934 in 1985/86 to 2,014,620 in 2010 represents a 22.4% increase whereas the population increase in that time was 43.2% (13,630,377 to 19,515,563). This is a 20.8% lower per capita rate of cycling. If cycling trips per day in 1985/86 (1,645,943) had matched population growth of 43.2% there would have been 2,356,977 daily bike trips in 2010, which is 342,357 more than the observed estimate of 2,014,620. Tabulated below are the male/female/persons ratios of cycling for each state and nationally in 1985/86 (CR69 Table 4.1a), calculated to the exact percentage to estimate the expected equivalent number of cyclists aged 10+ in 2010 based on ABS Census data:
The CPS 2011 demographic ratios can be applied retrospectively to estimate how many people would have been cycling daily in 1985/86. The table below assumes the same CPS national rate of cycling per week of 5.4.
This would probably have resulted in a less healthy generation of Australians who have grown up unfamiliar with and not attracted to cycling as adults in the current day. Note: although CPS 2011 states that its estimate of an average 5.4 trips per week is probably an underestimate, this is at odds with the report's Table 4.6 which states that 60.5% of male/female respondents had cycled less than four times in the week prior to interview.
The table below details survey respondents aged 15+ who cycled across Australia in the 12 months prior to survey, not per day as above.
In 1985/86, 891,200 children aged 9-15 cycled every day. This compares to 913,500 children aged 8-14 in 2010 who cycled during their previous school term, according to ERASS. In 1985/86, 66% of boys aged 9-15 cycled every day compared to 52% of boys aged 8-14 who cycled during their previous school term in 2010. In 1985/86, 28% of girls aged 9-15 cycled every day compared to 44% of girls aged 8-14 who cycled during their previous school term in 2010. The population of 8-15 year olds in 1986 was 2,076,369 and in 2010 it was 2,213,690. The population aged 8-15 increased 6.6% and the number of children cycling in this age category increased 2.5%. The ABS Children's Participation in Cultural and Leisure Activities 2012 reports that 1,770,400 Australian children aged 5-14 bike cycled at some time during the 12 months prior to interview. The total is 63.5% of all children in Australia aged 5-14 in 2012. In 2006, there were 1,806,200 children aged 5-14 who cycled at some time during the previous 12 months. The data suggest that from 2000 to 2012, children aged 5-14 increased cycling 5% and population in that age bracket increased 3.7%, but from 2006 to 2012 children aged 5-14 decreased cycling 1.8% and population in that age bracket increased 1.7%. The 2011 Cycling Participation survey suggests there were 1,071,899 bike trips per day by Australians aged 0-9 and 592,515 daily bicycle trips aged 10-17.
Among children and young adults, the Australian population aged 10-24 increased from 3,915,279 in 1981 to 4,554,447 in 2010 - up 16.3%. Based on a rework of Australian per capita cycling participation in 1985/86 and 2011 and 1985/86 state ratios, 1,307,275 trips per day were expected in 2011 among cyclists aged 10-14. However, the 2011 CPS estimated there were only 786,813. This signals a catastrophic decline in child and young adult recreational exercise and road awareness. Many baby boomer and X generation cyclists experienced and enjoyed cycling before helmet laws were enforced in Australia in 1990-92. Many were children or teenagers in 1985/86. Their ageing travel choice has since been influenced by an approximate 120% increase in petrol prices, traffic congestion and improved cycling infrastructure. Comparative 1985/86 age bracket ratios applied to ABS 2010 population data suggest a reduction in per capita cycling despite the size of the 40-65yo baby boomer cohort. This generation enjoyed bare-head cycling as children, carrying these familiar recreation and road skills into later life. In all age brackets, the proportion of cyclists risking prosecution without a helmet has increased substantially since the year 2000 and this bare head sector contributes to increased participation reported both in surveys and by electronic pathway bicycle monitors.
The ratios and numbers for children and young adults reveal far less cycling exercise during these critical formative years. Although cycling participation in Australia has increased slightly since 2007, the ERASS data suggest pre-2007 levels of 15+ cycling per year were lower than 1985/86 levels of 9+ cycling per day. Most Australian states reported increased cycling participation around 10% per annum during the 1980s, probably underestimating daily cycling levels in this analysis by the time Victoria introduced Australia's first all-age mandatory helmet law in 1990. Surveys show a downturn beginning in 1990/92 when helmet laws were enforced, resulting in detrimental public health and road safety outcomes for a generation of Australians. The CPS estimates 33.6% of all people aged 10-17 cycled per week in 2011. CR69 estimates 66% of males and 27% of females aged 9-15, 81% of males and 27% of females aged 16, and 57% of males and 10% of females aged 17 who cycled every day in 1985/86. The estimates do not bode well for cycling participation in future years as a lower proportion of children become adults without bicycle experience.
It is worth noting separate to this analysis that the ABS calculated total persons who travel to places other than work or full-time study in March 2012 (Excel 365kb) and estimated recreational cyclists at 806,200 in Australia. Added to the 178,500 who cycled to work or full-time study (Table 2.2), this totalled 984,700 cyclists in 2012. Total persons who travel to places other than work or full-time study in March 2009 estimated recreational cyclists nationally at 844,200. Added to the 151,000 who cycled to work or full-time study (Table 2), this totals 995,200. The ABS data suggest commuter cycling in Australia increased over the three years by 27,500 but at the same time recreational cycling fell by 38,000, resulting in a net 10,500 fewer cyclists in Australia. The proportion of bicycles as a recreational transport mode for total persons was 5.3% in 2009 and 4.8% in 2012. Both ABS surveys were conducted during March which is among the most popular months in Australia for cycling. |
Australia New South Wales Northern Territory Queensland
South Australia Tasmania Victoria Western Australia
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Bicycle trips per day
Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (Table 4.1a, p120) ACT - 0.21 (21.38%) trips per male x 90,751 people aged 9+ = 19,058 daily bike trips
Total 29,858 daily bike trips
Extract from Review of the Australian Day-to-Day Travel Survey Data Base 1985/86
ACT - 0.21 (21.38%) trips per male x 155,224 people aged 10+ = 33,187 daily bike trips
Total 51,713 expected daily bike trips based on 1985/86 male/female ratios
The survey estimated 44,336 bicycle trips aged 10+ per day in the ACT If the same ratio of bike trips per person per day from 1985/86 is applied to the 2010 population of the ACT, there are 7,377 less trips per capita than four years pre-law
The table below details survey respondents aged 15+ who cycled in the previous year, not 9+ per day as above in 1985/86
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Australia Australian Capital Territory Northern Territory Queensland
South Australia Tasmania Victoria Western Australia
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Bicycle trips per day
Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (Table 4.1a, p120) NSW - 0.14 (14.12%) trips per male x 2,179,000 people aged 9+ = 307,615 daily bike trips
Total 420,785 daily bike trips
Extract from Review of the Australian Day-to-Day Travel Survey Data Base 1985/86
NSW - 0.14 (14.12%) trips per male x 3,124,757 people aged 10+ = 441,216 daily bike trips
Total 604,575 expected daily bike trips based on 1985/86 male/female ratios
The survey estimated 461,929 bicycle trips aged 10+ per day in NSW If the same ratio of bike trips per person per day from 1985/86 is applied to the 2010 population of NSW, there are 142,646 less trips per capita than five years pre-law
The table below details survey respondents aged 15+ who cycled in the previous year, not 9+ per day as above in 1985/86
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Australia Australian Capital Territory New South Wales Northern Territory
Queensland South Australia Tasmania Western Australia
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Bicycle trips per day
Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (Table 4.1a, p120) Victoria - 0.22 (21.56%) trips per male x 1,624,572 people aged 9+ = 350,258 daily bike trips
Total 466,166 daily bike trips
Extract from Review of the Australian Day-to-Day Travel Survey Data Base 1985/86
Victoria - 0.22 (21.56%) trips per male x 2,401,694 people aged 10+ = 517,805 daily bike trips
Total 689,058 expected daily bike trips based on 1985/86 male/female ratios
The survey estimated 615,147 bicycle trips aged 10+ per day in Victoria If the same ratio of bike trips per person per day from 1985/86 is applied to the 2010 population of Victoria, there are 73,911 less trips per capita than four years pre-law
The table below details survey respondents aged 15+ who cycled in the previous year, not 9+ per day as above in 1985/86
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Australia Australian Capital Territory New South Wales Northern Territory
South Australia Tasmania Victoria Western Australia
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Bicycle trips per day
Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (Table 4.1a, p120) Queensland - 0.25 (24.59%) trips per male x 980,659 people aged 9+ = 241,144 daily bike trips
Total 321,949 daily bike trips
Extract from Review of the Australian Day-to-Day Travel Survey Data Base 1985/86
Queensland - 0.25 (24.59%) trips per male x 1,946,365 people aged 10+ = 478,611 daily bike trips
Total 641,169 expected daily bike trips based on 1985/86 male/female ratios
The survey estimated 427,539 bicycle trips aged 10+ per day in Queensland If the same ratio of bike trips per person per day from 1985/86 is applied to the 2010 population of Queensland, there are 213,630 less trips per capita than five years pre-law
The table below details survey respondents aged 15+ who cycled in the previous year, not 9+ per day as above in 1985/86
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Australia Australian Capital Territory New South Wales Northern Territory
Queensland Tasmania Victoria Western Australia
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Bicycle trips per day
Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (Table 4.1a, p120) South Australia - 0.20 (20.08%) trips per male x 547,829 people aged 9+ = 110,004 daily bike trips
Total 171,125 daily bike trips
Extract from Review of the Australian Day-to-Day Travel Survey Data Base 1985/86
South Australia - 0.20 (20.08%) trips per male x 714,377 people aged 10+ = 143,447 daily bike trips
Total 223,392 expected daily bike trips based on 1985/86 male/female ratios
The survey estimated 126,444 bicycle trips aged 10+ per day in South Australia If the same ratio of bike trips per person per day from 1985/86 is applied to the 2010 population of South Australia, there are 96,948 less trips per capita than five years pre-law
The table below details survey respondents aged 15+ who cycled in the previous year, not 9+ per day as above in 1985/86
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Australia Australian Capital Territory New South Wales Northern Territory
Queensland South Australia Tasmania Victoria
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Bicycle trips per day
Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (Table 4.1a, p120) Western Australia - 0.24 (23.98%) trips per male x 545,646 people aged 9+ = 130,846 daily bike trips
Total 182,953 daily bike trips
Extract from Review of the Australian Day-to-Day Travel Survey Data Base 1985/86
Western Australia - 0.24 (23.98%) trips per male x 1,011,862 people aged 10+ = 242,645 daily bike trips
Total 338,228 expected daily bike trips based on 1985/86 male/female ratios
The survey estimated 257,024 bicycle trips aged 10+ per day in Western Australia If the same ratio of bike trips per person per day from 1985/86 is applied to the 2010 population of Western Australia, there are 81,204 less trips per capita than six years pre-law
The table below details survey respondents aged 15+ who cycled in the previous year, not 9+ per day as above in 1985/86
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Australia Australian Capital Territory New South Wales Northern Territory
Queensland South Australia Victoria Western Australia
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Bicycle trips per day
Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (Table 4.1a, p120) Tasmania - 0.13 (13.3%) trips per male x 176,779 people aged 9+ = 23,512 daily bike trips
Total 29,322 daily bike trips
Extract from Review of the Australian Day-to-Day Travel Survey Data Base 1985/86
Tasmania - 0.13 (13.3%) trips per male x 217,301 people aged 10+ = 28,901 daily bike trips
Total 36,197 expected daily bike trips based on 1985/86 male/female ratios
The survey estimated 51,394 bicycle trips aged 10+ per day in Tasmania If the same ratio of bike trips per person per day from 1985/86 is applied to the 2010 population of Tasmania, there are 15,197 more trips per capita than five years pre-law
The table below details survey respondents aged 15+ who cycled in the previous year, not 9+ per day as above in 1985/86
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Australia Australian Capital Territory New South Wales Queensland
South Australia Tasmania Victoria Western Australia
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Bicycle trips per day
Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (Table 4.1a, p120) Northern Territory - 0.24 (24.38%) trips per male x 53,320 people aged 9+ = 12,999 daily bike trips
Total 23,802 daily bike trips
Extract from Review of the Australian Day-to-Day Travel Survey Data Base 1985/86
Northern Territory - 0.24 (24.38%) trips per male x 100,473 people aged 10+ = 24,495 daily bike trips
Total 46,128 expected daily bike trips based on 1985/86 male/female ratios
The survey estimated 37,345 bicycle trips aged 10+ per day in the Northern Territory If the same ratio of bike trips per person per day from 1985/86 is applied to the 2010 population of the Northern Territory, there are 8,783 less trips per capita than five years pre-law
The table below details survey respondents aged 15+ who cycled in the previous year, not 9+ per day as above in 1985/86
Australia Australian Capital Territory New South Wales Northern Territory Queensland |
