VISTA surveys show Victorian cycling participation less than before helmet law

The 2012/13 Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity (VISTA) results were published in March 2016.

Melbourne trips

The VISTA survey data show an average 243,554 weekday bike trips in inner, middle and outer Melbourne during 2012/13:

The survey data show that among the 243,554 weekday bicycle trips throughout greater Melbourne, 161,739 were in inner Melbourne, 44,438 were in middle Melbourne and 37,377 were in outer Melbourne.

VISTA 2007 (p11) shows all-age use of bicycles at 1.7% of the total 11,609,000 trips per weekday (197,353 bicycle trips per day) or 1.7% of the total 10,125,000 weekend trips per day in Melbourne (172,125). That averages to 184,739 bike trips per day in 2007/08:

VISTA 2007 (p11)

Based on these survey results, it can be claimed that daily weekday cycling participation in Melbourne increased by 58,815 or 31.8% from 2007/08 to 2012/13.

However, daily weekday cycling participation in regional Victoria decreased from 27,295 in 2007/08 to 14,301 in 2012/13. See below.

Due to substantial population growth and government investment in Melbourne cycling infrastructure over the past decade, the city's cycling participation has increased. In 2014, Greater Melbourne had approximately 1,900 kilometres of bike paths and trails for cyclists and the inner City of Melbourne municipality had 136 kilometres.

Greater Melbourne’s population was 3,810,000 in 2007 and 4,350,000 in 2013, a 14.2% increase. The resident population of the City of Melbourne municipality including the CBD increased 36.5% from 85,000 in 2007 to 116,000 in 2013.

The 2012/13 all-age weekday cycling average of 243,554 should be compared with the pre helmet law results of Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985/86, which show an average 270,600 bicycle trips per day in Melbourne by cyclists aged 9+:

Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (p131)

Greater Melbourne’s population was 2,968,000 in 1986 and 4,350,000 in 2013, up 46.6%.

Greater Melbourne's 2013 population increased 95,500 in the year from 2012, a higher growth rate than any other capital city in Australia. Greater Melbourne accounted for 76% of Victoria's population at June 2013.

In 2013, the population density of Greater Melbourne was 440 people per sq km. The population density of inner-city Melbourne was 12,400 people per sq km, with neighbouring Carlton at 9,000 and Fitzroy at 7,900 people per sq km.

The VISTA survey shows that 2.1% of an average 12,300,000 journeys made on a typical day in Melbourne were by bike in 2012/13.

The Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985/86 table above shows 270,600 cyclists out of a total of 7,899,400 journeys, which was 3.4% of trips by bike in 1985/86.

Bicycle number surveys conducted by the Monash University Accident Research Centre at 64 Melbourne locations showed a 36% reduction from 3,121 in 1990 to 2,011 in 1991:

Bicycle Use and Helmet Wearing Rates in Melbourne, 1987 to 1992: the Influence of the Helmet Wearing Law (p36)

Regional trips

VISTA data show that outside Melbourne in the City of Geelong and the Victorian regional centres of Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe and Shepparton, the average number of weekday bike trips was 14,301 in 2012/13.

There have been three VISTA surveys, the first in 2007/08 and again in 2009/10, with the results below:

Average weekday bicycle trips in Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe and Shepparton declined 47.6% from 27,295 in 2007/08 to 14,301 in 2012/13

Work trips

The VISTA survey data show an average 44,882 weekday bike trips to work in greater Melbourne during 2012/13, with the following data breakdown for inner, middle and outer Melbourne:

Outside Melbourne in Geelong and the regional centres of Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe and Shepparton, the survey data show an average 1,929 weekday bike trips to work during 2012/13.

In Geelong there were an average 175,250 weekday trips to work by all modes (25% of 701,000 total trips). In the regional centres of Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe and Shepparton, there were an average 264,000 weekday trips to work by all modes (22% of 1,200,000 total trips).

Combined, these represent an average 439,250 weekday trips to work by all transport modes in Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe and Shepparton.

There were an average 1,929 bicycle trips to work in Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe and Shepparton during 2012/13, which is 1.27% of all 439,250 weekday trips to work.

In Melbourne there were an average 3,198,000 weekday trips to work (26% of 12.3 million total trips), of which 44,882 or 1.40% were by bicycle.

Combining Melbourne with Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe and Shepparton, the VISTA 2012/13 survey shows there were an average 3,637,250 weekday trips to work (3,198,000 + 439,250), of which 46,811 or 1.29% were by bicycle.

Census data show that in pre helmet law 1986, 1.75% of all trips to work in Victoria were by bicycle (24,022 out of 1,375,623). In 1991, a year after Victoria's bicycle helmet law was enforced, the proportion was 1.36% and in both 1996 and 2001 it was 1.15%.

Travel to work in Australian capital cities, 1976-2006 shows Melbourne's proportion of bicycle trips to work in 1986 was 1.1%, falling to 0.9% in the 1996 Census due to the influence of helmet laws before recovering to 1.3% in 2006:

Travel to work in Australian capital cities, 1976-2006 (p4)

Cycling Infrastructure for Australian Cities published by Infrastructure Australia in 2009 suggests the percentage of Victorians cycling to work was about 2.1% by 2006:

Cycling Infrastructure for Australian Cities (p11)

The national plunge in work cycling between 1996 and 2000 (42.1%, not 73% reduction) is easily explained by bicycle helmet laws discouraging participation since the early 1990s. The Northern Territory has the highest proportion of cyclist commuters because the territory's adult bike helmet law was repealed in 1994.

All data suggest that the recovery in numbers cycling to work across the state of Victoria is almost entirely due to inner Melbourne increases.

Education trips

The VISTA survey data show an average 12,815 weekday bike trips to education destinations ranging from primary school to university in inner, middle and outer Melbourne during 2012/13:

The survey data show that among the 12,815 weekday bike trips to education destinations during 2012/13, an average 7,460 were in inner Melbourne, 3,546 were in middle Melbourne and 1,808 were in outer Melbourne.

Throughout greater Melbourne, there were an average 7,070 weekday bicycle trips to primary schools during 2012/13 (2.62% of all travel modes). Of these, 4,289 were in inner Melbourne, 973 were in middle Melbourne and 1,808 were in outer Melbourne.

VISTA data show that in Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe and Shepparton, 2.53% of all trips to primary schools were by bicycle in 2012/13.

Throughout greater Melbourne, there were an average 2,484 weekday bicycle trips to secondary schools during 2012/13, representing 1.3% of all transport modes. Of these, 749 were in inner Melbourne (1.9%), 1,735 were in middle Melbourne (2.75%) and none were in outer Melbourne.

VISTA data show that in Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe and Shepparton, 1.41% of all trips to secondary schools were by bicycle in 2012/13.

The VISTA primary and secondary school data for 2012/13 can be compared with pre-helmet law numbers for Victoria as detailed below:

Victorian Bicycle Strategy November 1991 (p29)

The VISTA primary and secondary school data for 2012/13 can also be compared with the journal extract below showing the mean frequency of cycling to Melbourne schools dropped from 1.22 times per week in 1985 to 0.36 times per week in 2001, with the obesity percentage rising from 1.1% to 7.1% (see Trends in children's physical activity and weight status in high and low socio-economic status areas of Melbourne, Victoria, 1985-2001) :

Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 2005 (p339)

Statewide trips

For all of Victoria, the VISTA 2012/13 survey shows a cumulative average of 257,855 people cycling daily in Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe and Shepparton.

This number of bicycle trips per day in Victoria in 2012/13 can be compared with pre helmet law data from Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (CR69), published by the Federal Office of Road Safety in 1988, which analysed different travel modes among Australians above the age of nine.

Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (p123) shows 466,100 bicycle trips per day in Victoria (350,200 male, 115,900 female).

Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (p123)

These 466,100 bicycle trips were 4.2% of the averaged total 11,029,500 trips per day of all modes in Victoria during 1985/86.

VISTA data show 257,855 bicycle trips were 1.82% of the averaged total 14,149,286 weekday trips of all modes in Melbourne, Geelong and regional centres during 2012/13.

Victoria's estimated resident population at June 2013 was 5,740,000, an increase of 106,800 since June 2012 which was the largest population increase of any state or territory.

The extract below from the Victorian Bicycle Strategy, published in November 1991, shows the characteristics of bicycle travel estimated across Australia in 1985/86, sourced from Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985/86.

Victorian Bicycle Strategy, November 1991 (p40)

The data above shows there were an average 1,141,800 daily bike trips by Australians aged 9 to 17 in 1985/86.

VISTA estimates there were an average 43,265 weekday bicycle trips by Victorians aged 0 to 17 in Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Latrobe and Shepparton during 2012/13.

The 1985/86 cycling data for Australians aged 9 to 17 should also be compared with the VISTA estimates above of an average 9,554 weekday bike trips to Melbourne primary and secondary schools in 2012/13.

Conclusion

Based on these government surveys, overall bicycle use in Victoria fell from 466,100 in 1985/86 to 257,855 trips per day in 2012/13 - down 44.7%.

It should be noted that the 1985/86 data excluded cyclists aged less than nine and this represents about 15% of the entire cycling population, whereas the VISTA data from 2012/13 is for all ages. Victoria’s population was 4,161,356 in 1986 and 5,784,900 by the end of 2013 - up 39%.

A Vic Roads internal report by J Lambert in May 1990, Number of cyclists, bicyclist trips and bicyclist accident reports in Victoria, 1986 - 1989, estimated there were 2.2 million cyclists in Victoria in 1989 following a 47% increase in numbers since 1986, with an estimated 1.4 million cyclists in Melbourne.

The extract below from the Victorian Bicycle Strategy shows participation in 1989, the year before helmet law enforcement:

Victorian Bicycle Strategy, November 1991 (p40)

Current cycling participation in Victoria can alternatively be sourced to the 2015 National Cycling Participation survey which shows 429,446 daily bike trips by Victorians of all ages and 286,109 daily bike trips by Victorians aged 9+.

This compares with the 466,100 daily bike trips by Victorians aged 9+ in 1985/86.

Melbourne's 58,815 increase in weekday cyclists from 2007/08 to 2012/13 should be seen in the context of pre-1990 bicycle helmet laws, which demonstrates an irrefutable and massive reduction in Victorian cycling participation that has profound implications for public health and road safety over the past 25 years and into the future.

Footnote: most data above should be regarded as approximations rather than accurate statistics. Each participation survey has different formulae to estimate daily cycling averages and available variants don't necessarily apply to all age groups, such as the National Cycling Participation averages of "times per week" to calculate daily bike trips. However, calculations based on the available survey estimates allow approximate comparable averages for different years that confirm a decline in per capita Australian cycling.